Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 16.748875 20.296793 24.217307 28.844647 34.129740 39.950713 46.818655
2025-10-05 11.935331 16.639288 22.384979 29.801128 38.993958 49.887128 63.633312
2025-10-12 9.167230 14.317461 21.124189 30.519652 42.871481 58.267153 78.588312
2025-10-19 7.280063 12.586222 20.098063 31.067582 46.194029 65.815582 92.626967
2025-10-26 6.001075 11.384777 19.488833 31.913196 49.746999 73.650720 107.236849
2025-11-02 4.741039 9.910380 18.194725 31.521894 51.406390 78.896826 118.536720
2025-11-09 3.878067 8.885634 17.389188 31.673211 53.720990 85.025277 131.167590
2025-11-16 3.137456 7.899087 16.468845 31.484280 55.424441 90.276831 142.706004
2025-11-23 2.454698 6.847663 15.257281 30.648068 56.003648 93.846312 151.923312
2025-11-30 2.128410 6.450101 15.136065 31.574013 59.332177 101.534128 167.260731
2025-12-07 1.703772 5.716455 14.266893 31.096040 60.334713 105.731653 177.613482
2025-12-14 1.433446 5.272913 13.887090 31.423995 62.633777 111.948504 191.108724
2025-12-21 1.028046 4.361309 12.442807 29.728170 61.569201 113.144183 197.530995
2025-12-28 0.884456 4.138229 12.444982 30.789492 65.329660 122.152475 216.235445
2026-01-04 0.744802 3.872117 12.299906 31.531896 68.552539 130.408615 234.037211
2026-01-11 0.619407 3.598413 12.084028 32.094203 71.462061 138.244123 251.407851
2026-01-18 0.527350 3.403198 12.023545 32.961360 74.959552 147.158930 270.726099
2026-01-25 0.405750 3.021193 11.405652 32.560118 76.046822 152.064553 283.789028
2026-02-01 0.324800 2.762735 11.063408 32.715283 78.174866 158.780577 299.926689
2026-02-08 0.250835 2.481696 10.594422 32.521548 79.593220 164.303367 314.252485
2026-02-15 0.179753 2.146407 9.880927 31.663991 79.624464 167.386793 324.631880
2026-02-22 0.152917 2.058487 9.920378 32.613563 83.328378 177.039824 346.128422
2026-03-01 0.111262 1.817929 9.401487 32.123413 84.048429 181.394336 358.872434